China reported on Monday a significant leap in exports, with a 12.4 percent surge in March, far surpassing expectations, as companies hurried to beat harsh new tariffs imposed by United States President Donald Trump on what he dubbed “Liberation Day.”
Tensions between the world’s two largest economies have been escalating rapidly, with Trump’s global tariff campaign zeroing in on Chinese goods.
The ongoing tit-for-tat trade conflict has driven US tariffs on Chinese imports up to 145 percent, while China has retaliated with its own 125 percent duties on US products.
According to figures from China’s General Administration of Customs, the March export boost more than doubled the 4.6 percent forecast from a Bloomberg survey.
Meanwhile, imports dropped 4.3 percent, still a positive sign compared to previous months, hinting at a gradual recovery in domestic spending.
Despite rising trade barriers, the US remained China’s largest export market in the first quarter, with shipments valued at $115.6 billion from January through March.
In March alone, when the second wave of American tariffs took effect—Chinese exports to the US rose approximately nine percent year-on-year.
With an annual economic growth target of around five percent, China’s leadership has pledged to shift focus toward domestic consumption as the key driver of growth. However, the trade standoff with the US poses a significant threat to that ambition.
There was a slight easing of pressure last Friday when Washington announced temporary tariff exemptions on critical electronics like smartphones, laptops, and semiconductors—major exports from China.
– Frontloading Ahead of Tariffs –
Experts believe the March export spike is linked to exporters rushing to ship goods before the new round of US tariffs took effect on April 2.
“The strong export data reflect frontloading of trade before the US tariffs were announced,” noted Zhiwei Zhang, President and Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
“China’s exports will likely weaken in the coming months as the US tariffs skyrocket,” he added.
“The uncertainty of trade policies is extremely high,” Zhang said.
Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics echoed this sentiment, writing, “In anticipation of even higher duties, demand from US importers continued to hold up fairly well” in March. “But shipments are set to drop back over the coming months and quarters,” he added.
“It could be years before Chinese exports regain current levels.”
Beyond the trade spat, China’s broader economy is grappling with weak consumer spending and ongoing turmoil in the debt-laden property market.
In response, authorities last year rolled out several policy tools, interest rate cuts, relaxed homebuying rules, higher borrowing limits for local governments, and support for financial markets.
Yet, following an early surge in the markets driven by expectations of a bold economic rescue plan, sentiment cooled as policymakers stopped short of announcing a concrete stimulus package or providing detailed implementation strategies.
